Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
